Professional Auction Guarantee Analysis Tool
Analyze guarantee structures, third-party arrangements, and market manipulation risks
Risk Factor Analysis
Strategic Recommendations
Financial Structure Analysis
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🧠 How to Use This Tool
1. Fill in Lot & Estimate Details: - Provide the artist and work title. - Input low and high auction estimates. - Add any third-party or house guarantee data. 2. Analyze Structure: - Select guarantee type (house, third-party, irrevocable). - Set upside share and fee percentage if applicable. - Rate the auction house disclosure quality. 3. Set Market Context: - Input recent comparable sale for the lot. - Choose market conditions and expected competition level. - Select auction house and risk assessment fields (provenance, condition, attribution). 4. Get Your Analysis: - The tool calculates manipulation risk, true market value, and premium inflation. - It evaluates risk signals like phantom bidding and price distortion. - View strategic recommendations and a detailed financial breakdown.
💡 Why Use This Tool
Auction guarantees can obscure the true demand and inflate sale prices. Use this tool to: ✓ Expose Market Distortion: Identify how much a guarantee is inflating the price. ✓ Quantify Manipulation Risk: Factor in disclosure quality, competition level, and guarantee aggressiveness. ✓ Analyze True Market Value: Separate hype from reality using data from comps and structural conditions. ✓ Protect Your Capital: Don’t overbid based on inflated signals or house-sponsored hype. ✓ Strategy & Transparency: Get plain-language recommendations that reflect deal reality—not catalog fiction. This tool makes you a forensic bidder in a market rife with asymmetric information.
❓ FAQ
Q: Can this detect artificial inflation? A: Yes. It calculates manipulation probability based on guarantee mechanics and disclosure transparency. Q: What’s the most dangerous guarantee type? A: Irrevocable bids. They create a floor with little price discovery and minimal transparency. Q: Should I bid on guaranteed lots? A: Only if you understand the financials and can justify the premium. This tool helps you do exactly that. Q: How accurate is the true value estimate? A: It triangulates midpoint estimates and comps, discounting for inflationary structures. While not exact, it’s more truthful than the catalog. Q: Can I use this for private treaty sales? A: Not directly—it's calibrated for auction formats where guarantees and fees are disclosed (even partially).
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