An estimate is not a valuation. It is a commercial instrument with a job to do, and the job is to attract bidders. Reading it as the auction house’s honest opinion of what a work is worth is the most consequential misunderstanding a new buyer can carry into a saleroom.
Here is how estimates are arrived at, what the reserve does underneath them, and what the various formulations actually signal.
How a Specialist Sets One
The starting point is comparables: recent auction results for similar works by the same artist — similar in period, medium, scale, subject and quality. From there the specialist adjusts for condition, for provenance, for exhibition history, and for whether the artist’s market is currently rising or soft.
Then commercial judgement enters, and this is the part that is not analysis. The low estimate is frequently set below what the house genuinely expects, because a low opening draws more bidders into the room and competition between four people produces a better result than a single buyer meeting a high number.
There is also a negotiation with the consignor, who generally wants a high estimate for reassurance and whose expectations the specialist has to manage against the risk of the lot failing.
The Reserve Sits Underneath
The reserve is the confidential minimum below which the work will not sell. Two rules govern it and both are worth memorising.
It is agreed with the seller, not imposed by the house. And it sits at or below the low estimate, never above it. That second rule is why the low estimate is genuinely informative: it is the ceiling on the reserve, which makes it the highest possible figure the work could fail beneath.
What a Result Tells You About the Estimate
Hammering below low estimate — the work sold at or near reserve. One bidder, or two, no competition. A soft result.
Within the range — the estimate was accurate and the market agreed. Unremarkable, which is what most lots are.
Well above high estimate — either the estimate was deliberately conservative, or genuine competition emerged. Both happen, and the catalogue will not tell you which.
Bought in — the reserve was not met. The work is now burned for a period; the trade knows it failed, and reoffering it soon depresses the next result.
Reading a season through this lens is far more informative than reading headline totals. A sale where most lots hammer at or just under low estimate is a market clearing rather than competing, however impressive the aggregate figure looks in a press release.
Guarantees Change the Reading
Where a lot is guaranteed by the house or a third party, a minimum price has already been committed before the sale opens. The work will sell whatever happens in the room, and a result at or near that figure tells you about the guarantee rather than about demand. The mechanics of guarantee structures are worth understanding in full.
If You Are Consigning
Push back on an estimate that seems flattering. A high estimate protects your feelings and endangers your sale; a lot that fails is worth materially less the next time it appears.
Insist the reserve is stated in writing and cannot be moved without your consent. It is one of five clauses in the consignment agreement worth reading twice.
Frequently Asked Questions
How are auction estimates set?
From recent comparable results for the artist, adjusted for condition, provenance, scale and market direction — then adjusted commercially, with the low estimate often set beneath expected value to encourage competitive bidding.
What is a reserve price?
The confidential minimum below which the work will not sell. It is agreed with the seller and always sits at or below the low estimate.
Can I find out the reserve?
No, it is confidential. But because it can never exceed the low estimate, that figure is your upper bound on it.
What does “estimate on request” mean?
The lot is valued in the region of eight figures or above, and the house prefers to discuss it directly with serious enquirers.
Do estimates include the buyer’s premium?
No. Estimates are hammer figures. Premium and tax are added on top, typically 35 to 40 per cent at accessible price levels.
Part of our autumn 2026 auction season series. See also: the full season guide and how to register and bid.
No products in the basket.